“Its strategic relations with Russia are. Preserving a relationship with Russia is important for China geographically, economically, and politically, the Carnegie Endowment’s Alexander Gabuev explains. What China wantsįor China, the meeting will help reaffirm its longstanding relationship with Russia while underscoring the limits of that support. According to the Wall Street Journal, trade between China and Russia could hit $200 billion by 2024. Although Europe’s purchases of Russian oil and gas have dipped significantly, China has helped offset these losses by purchasing these resources instead. Russia has been increasingly dependent on China’s economic support since the war began, including relying on it as a market for energy exports. Status quo means that Russia is occupying parts of Ukraine.” “Putin says that Russia is ready to negotiate only if Ukraine and the West accept the status quo. “For, it’s very important that China would accept his vision of how this war would end,” says Ignatov. When it comes to any negotiations on an end to the war, Russia will also likely look to get China’s backing for its conditions for peace, says Oleg Ignatov, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst on Russia. “Exhaustive clarifications will be given by President Putin, so that President Xi can get a first-hand view of the current moment from the Russian side,” Dmitry Peskov, a spokesperson for the Kremlin, told reporters on Monday. This meeting also gives Russia a chance to provide its perspective on how the war is going to a partner that’s been somewhat skeptical so far. “There would be really serious reputational losses but also economic losses for the Chinese in terms of sanctions and secondary sanctions,” says Joseph Torigian, an assistant professor at American University. According to a February CNN report, US intelligence believes that China has been weighing whether to provide drones and ammunition to Russia.Ĭhina changing its position on military aid would be a watershed moment, but it’s less likely because of the consequences that decision would bring. Russia has pushed for Chinese military support in the past and could well use this meeting to continue making its case. “Instead, I’d expect any announcements to focus on China’s priorities: locking in favorable rates for Russian gas exports, etc.” What Russia wants “I think it’s still relatively unlikely we’ll get any major announcements on the war in Ukraine from this summit, or on Chinese military aid to Russia,” says Emma Ashford, a fellow at the Atlantic Council. Given their differing aims, this meeting probably won’t result in concrete military commitments so much as posturing by China and discussions of the two countries’ trade relationship. For China, this meeting is also a chance to burnish its diplomatic credentials, something it signaled in its purported advocacy for “peace talks.” As a result, China has stopped short of offering Russia lethal aid and is likely to continue doing so. Russia, increasingly isolated diplomatically and in the midst of a major effort on several fronts of the invasion, is likely using this chance to once again push for military support from China and underscore the relationship it still has with a major world power.Ĭhina, meanwhile, is focused on maintaining its economic and strategic ties with Russia, without alienating countries in Europe and Africa. The two leaders are coming into this meeting with slightly different needs. Xi arrived in Russia Monday for a three-day meeting in Moscow, in which the two are poised to discuss next steps related to the war as well as how they can continue to grow other areas of a “comprehensive partnership” more broadly. This week, Chinese President Xi Jinping is visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time since the latter invaded Ukraine last year.
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